The Delivery Delays Report: where shoppers are at risk of late deliveries

The final three months of the year are one of the busiest shopping seasons worldwide, known to retailers as the Golden Quarter. Spanning Black Friday and Cyber Monday through to the busy holiday season, consumer spending typically increases, creating a bumper season for businesses.   

But this year, logistics challenges may leave shoppers disappointed, as new data from Esendex reveals a growing gap in the availability of delivery workers across the UK in 2025, threatening to cause delays in meeting seasonal delivery demands. 

This year’s analysis builds on Esendex’s 2024 Delivery Delays Report, refreshing the data to track how vacancy levels have shifted over the past 12 months. The updated 2025 figures reveal that shortages have not eased, and in several regions, the delivery gap has widened. 

A growing delivery crisis behind the Golden Quarter

In 2024, the Golden Quarter period saw global ecommerce sales hit $241 billion, up 8.7% from the year before. Esendex data showed that 77% of consumers rein in their spending up to a month before Black Friday, so they can splurge on sales and discounted items.   

While shoppers are on the hunt for quality deals and last-minute purchases, retailers are heavily reliant on HGV and delivery drivers throughout this period, to ensure they can match the sharp rise in demand and keep customers happy. 

The latest Ofcom enforcement action paints a bleak picture for UK postal performance. In its 2024/2025 assessment, the regulator found Royal Mail failed to meet its legal delivery targets for its third consecutive year, delivering just 77% of First Class mail on time against a 93% requirement. 

Millions of letters arrived late even after accounting for exceptional weather, prompting Ofcom to issue a £21 million fine, the third largest in the regulator’s history. 

Meanwhile, fleet-based businesses continued to face significant challenges from driver shortages, with 200,000 new lorry drivers needed to cover the next 5 years to meet growing demand. 

This comes as the International Road Transport Union (IRU) reported that 3.6 million truck driver positions were unfilled across 36 countries, with up to 70% of companies facing severe or very severe difficulties in recruitment. 

As customers demand prompt delivery, clear communication, and a swift turnaround at any time of the year, businesses can struggle to manage expectations when they experience higher order volumes during peak season. 

And a growing shortage of delivery drivers can cause potential bottlenecks in some regions, posing a risk of severe delivery delays that could directly impact customer satisfaction.

To avoid this, businesses must operate with transparency and accountability. While delays may be unavoidable, managing customer expectations with clear and consistent updates using SMS solutions can ensure businesses maintain high customer satisfaction – especially as delivery information remains one of the most valued messages that customers wish to receive. 

Retailers should also connect with customers where they are, using WhatsApp for Business to provide a channel that supports two-way communication and drives effective communication and higher engagement. 

The UK regions most at risk of delivery delays 

To identify which regions are expected to be the most at risk from delivery driver shortages, our team analysed over 96,512 job listings across the United Kingdom (UK), Ireland, and Australia, to pinpoint the regions and cities most at risk of delays this Black Friday and Christmas period. 

We used Indeed data and looked at the number of job vacancies in each region for the most common delivery job titles, including ‘heavy goods vehicle driver’, ‘delivery driver’, ‘logistics coordinator’, ‘picker packer’, and ‘parcel sorter’. We also analysed the current listings for ‘Christmas’ driver’. 

The ‘Delivery Delays Report’ highlights a critical challenge for UK retailers in meeting delivery demands throughout this peak shopping season. 

With 31,325 open positions for delivery roles, the UK has the highest risk of shoppers experiencing delivery delays, averaging 45 vacancies per 100,000 people – a 6.5% uplift from 2024.

With more than 15,000 open vacancies for delivery drivers alone, this represents approximately 215 vacancies per million people in the total population – a potential issue that could lead to widespread delays and increased dissatisfaction among customers eager to receive their holiday purchases on time. 

Within the UK, England had the highest vacancy rate with 43.2 delivery vacancies per 100,000, and over 12,000 vacancies for delivery drivers, which may hinder delivery efficiency and lead to longer lead times for customers. 

Comparatively, Scotland had a lower rate of 26.4 per 100,000, while Wales and Northern Ireland reported even fewer, with just 20.1 and 17.1 vacancies per 100,000 residents, respectively. Collectively, these regions accounted for just 1,200 total vacancies for delivery drivers.  

Delivery job shortages across the UK

Country	HGV Driver Vacancies	Delivery Driver Vacancies	Logistics Coordinator Vacancies	Picker PackerVacancies	Parcel Sorter Vacancies	Delivery Vacancies (Total)
England	10,000	12,000	300	3,000	25	25,325
Scotland	500	800	50	100	13	1,463
Wales	200	300	25	100	16	641
Northern Ireland	100	100	25	100	5	330

Compared with 2024 figures, the UK’s delivery job shortages have grown slightly, particularly in England, where total delivery vacancies rose from 25,225 to 25,325, particularly for delivery driver roles where vacancies increased 15.4% year-on-year. 

Scotland and Northern Ireland saw a more modest increase of 10% and 4.8% respectively, while Wales jumped by nearly 26% to 641 total vacancies. 

Overall, these figures indicate that the staffing pressures highlighted in last year’s report are persisting, and in some regions, intensifying, as businesses prepare for peak-season demand. 

Regional shortages in the UK

The report found significant variation in delivery vacancies across regions and cities in the UK, indicating that retailers may face a critical challenge in meeting rising consumer demand during this year’s Black Friday and Christmas period. 

Within England, the East Midlands had the largest vacancy rate of 59.7 per 100,000 residents, with a total of 3,022 vacancies indicating a potentially higher rate of delivery delays within the region. 

The South East had the highest number of total vacancies, with 4,525 unfilled delivery roles. However, its slightly bigger population size meant its vacancy rate, at 46.9 per 100,000 residents, was just behind the East Midlands. 

Conversely, the North East and West Midlands had much lower vacancy figures of just 940 and 1,925 in total, respectively, resulting in lower delivery gaps of 34 and 31, which could lead to a more stable delivery season.  

Delivery job shortages across regions in the UK

Region	HGV Driver Vacancies	Delivery Driver Vacancies	Logistics Coordinator Vacancies	Picker PackerVacancies	Parcel Sorter Vacancies	Delivery Vacancies (Total)
South East	1,000	3,000	200	300	25	4,525
East Midlands	2,000	500	200	300	22	3,022
East of England	1,000	1,000	200	300	25	2,525
North West	1,000	1,000	200	200	25	2,425
Yorkshire and Humberside	900	700	200	300	50	2,150
South West	600	1,000	200	300	28	2,128
West Midlands	1,000	500	200	200	25	1,925
North East	400	200	200	100	40	940

Delivery shortages across UK cities

At a city level, Warrington stands out as the city most at risk for delivery delays, with a staggering 371.4 vacancies per 100,000 residents. As a critical shortage in one of the UK’s key industrial hubs, the resulting disruption could widely impact local businesses and shoppers.  

Warrington also replaces Bristol as the city with the highest delivery vacancies, with its delivery gap up 396% since 2024. 

Northampton follows behind with a gap of 254.9, up from 62 last year, while Bristol now ranks third, at 141.6 vacancies per 100,000 residents, marking a 44% increase year-on-year. 

Other cities in the top 10 reveal a mixed picture of rising pressures and regional variation. Peterborough (124.3) and Coventry (111.1), show notable increases in delivery gaps, reflecting strains in mid-sized hubs, while Nottingham (114.8) and Leeds (86) highlight growing challenges in northern cities. 

Southampton (104.5) and Slough (92) also face rising shortages, despite being smaller markets, indicating that delivery delays are not confined to traditionally busy retail centres. 

Even Manchester, the UK’s third-largest city, sees a gap of 80.6 per 100,000 residents, showing that staffing pressures are being felt in larger cities.  

Overall, the data points to a broadening spread of delivery shortages across both industrial and retail centres, signalling that businesses in diverse regions may need to plan proactively to maintain customer satisfaction during the peak shopping season. 

Top 10 UK cities most at risk of delivery delays, per capita (100,000)

City	Delivery Vacancies (Total)	Delivery Job Gap (per 100,000)	Delivery Gap % change since 2024
Warrington	800	371.4	396.2%
Northampton	635	254.9	309.7%
Bristol	700	141.6	44.3%
Peterborough	278	124.3	43.0%
Nottingham	380	114.8	199.6%
Coventry	410	111.1	239.5%
Southampton	282	104.5	38.9%
Slough	154	92.0	76.3%
Leeds	465	86.0	115.4%
Manchester	475	80.6	35.6%

Despite being the capital and a major retail hub, London faces the lowest risk of delivery delays in the UK, with a vacancy rate of just 9.2 per 100,000 residents, a 30% drop compared to 2024. This likely reflects the city’s well-established logistics infrastructure, which supports a steadier supply of delivery workers.

Other cities at the lower end of the risk spectrum include Cornwall (10.5 per 100,000) and Birmingham (23.9 per 100,000), though both have seen contrasting changes year-on-year: Cornwall’s vacancies fell 40% while Birmingham’s rose 52%. 

While residents in these areas may still encounter some delays, they are expected to face fewer disruptions than shoppers in cities with sharper increases in delivery gaps. 

Top 10 UK cities least at risk of delivery delays, per capita (100,000)

City	Delivery Vacancies (Total)	Delivery Job Gap (per 100,000)	Delivery Gap % change since 2024
London	835	9.2	-30.1%
Cornwall	61	10.5	-40.4%
Birmingham	283	23.9	52.1%
Dover	43	35.9	60.7%
Cardiff	167	37.3	79.6%
Derry	37	43.6	85.9%
Edinburgh	237	46.9	96.3%
Newcastle, Tyne and Wear	156	48.7	46.0%
Oxford	83	50.0	19.2%
Liverpool	439	50.8	251.2%

How delivery shortages have shifted since 2024

Delivery pressures across the UK have changed significantly in the past year, with some regions seeing dramatic increases in vacancies and delivery gaps. 

While London and a few other major hubs have seen improvements, other areas are facing sharply rising shortages, putting additional strain on local delivery networks just as demand peaks during the Golden Quarter. 

Year-on-Year growth in delivery gap (per capita) by region

Region	Delivery Job Gap (per 100,000)	Delivery Gap (% change since 2024)	Vacancies in total (% change since 2024)
North East	34.0	252.1%	267.2%
East Midlands	59.7	90.2%	97.4%
South East	46.9	79.1%	86.1%
West Midlands	31.0	51.8%	58.2%
Yorkshire and The Humber	37.9	45.7%	50.8%
North West	31.3	27.0%	32.4%
East of England	38.3	14.1%	18.8%
South West	36.1	6.5%	10.2%
London	9.2	-30.1%	-29.1%

Cities with the sharpest Year-on-Year changes

The data highlights Warrington and Northampton as the cities experiencing the steepest rises, with delivery vacancies in Warrington nearly quadrupling while Northampton saw vacancies more than triple compared with 2024.

Liverpool, Coventry, and Nottingham are also seeing substantial year-on-year growth in delivery shortages, highlighting areas where retailers may face significant challenges in meeting seasonal demand. 

Top 10 cities where delivery pressures are rising fastest

City	Delivery Job Gap (per 100,000)	Delivery Gap (% change since 2024)	Vacancies in total (% change since 2024)
Warrington	371.4	396.2%	520.2%
Northampton	254.9	309.7%	315.0%
Liverpool	50.8	251.2%	251.2%
Coventry	111.1	239.5%	262.8%
Nottingham	114.8	199.6%	206.5%
Sheffield	59.2	161.6%	173.8%
Derby	74.0	127.6%	130.7%
Leeds	86.0	115.4%	125.7%
Belfast	79.0	104.8%	159.4%
Edinburgh	46.9	96.3%	95.9%

Christmas driver vacancies

Presently, there are 100 open ‘Christmas Driver’ roles available in the UK, an increase of 300% since 2024. As the busy holiday season approaches, the current shortage could quickly become a challenge for businesses looking to meet tight delivery deadlines. 

Without additional recruitment, the pressure on the delivery network may intensify closer to the holiday season, creating a challenge in meeting consumer expectations. 

Top tips for businesses

Chris Gorman, Head of Commercial Transformation, commented on the findings: 

“As consumers ramp up spending for Black Friday and the Christmas period, identifying regions with the highest delivery job shortages is essential for businesses to anticipate bottlenecks in the supply chain. Especially as external pressures, from international shipping delays to peak season surcharges from major carriers, continue to strain logistics networks.

“Our latest data reveals that the UK now faces over 31,300 open vacancies for delivery roles, with cities like Warrington, Northampton, and Bristol experiencing the sharpest year-on-year increases. These gaps could directly impact service levels, leading to delays for both businesses and customers during the busiest shopping season of the year.

“Concerningly, this year’s figures reveal a 6.5% increase in delivery vacancies compared with 2024, highlighting the growing risk of delays across the UK.  

“With demand set to spike, the pressure on delivery systems will intensify. One of the most effective ways to manage these challenges is through the use of real-time communication tools, such as automated SMS solutions and WhatsApp for Business. These tools enable businesses to keep customers informed about delivery progress and any unexpected delays, allowing for proactive customer engagement. 

“During peak retail periods, maintaining transparency is even more crucial to customer satisfaction. By providing timely updates and facilitating two-way communication, businesses can alleviate customer service pressure and ensure greater customer confidence. During such a competitive trading period,  responsiveness can be a key differentiator for businesses.” 

Find out more about SMS solutions for the retail industry here.

Methodology

Building on last year’s ‘Delivery Delays Report’, Esendex collected and analysed job vacancy data from Indeed across 40 UK regions, and 15 locations in Ireland and Australia. Using keywords for common delivery roles and seasonal positions, Esendex examined the number of vacancies listed on Indeed, and then calculated the vacancy rate against the total population data to estimate the per capita demand for delivery roles. 

This enabled Esendex to identify the regions where customers may experience greater risks of delays through the peak shopping season, as well as assess year-on-year trends in vacancies. All data correct as of November 2025.